ISLAMABAD: Recent developments in United States foreign policy underPresident Donald Trump have signalled a notable shift towards Pakistan,straining relations with India and raising questions about Washington’sstance in potential future crises between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.Analysts point to Trump’s repeated claims of mediating a ceasefire in the2025 India-Pakistan conflict as a key factor, despite New Delhi’s firmdenials of third-party involvement. This perceived tilt has led tospeculation that in any new escalation, US sympathy might lean towardsIslamabad rather than New Delhi.
The four-day military clash in May 2025, triggered by a terrorist attack inKashmir that killed 26 civilians, saw intense exchanges of missiles anddrones. Trump announced a ceasefire on social media, crediting USmediation, while India insisted it was achieved through direct militarychannels. Pakistan welcomed the US role, with Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharifnominating Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize. Subsequent high-levelengagements, including Trump’s meetings with Pakistani Army Chief AsimMunir, underscored warming ties.
Trade policies further highlighted the divergence. The US imposed highertariffs on Indian goods, reaching up to 50 percent in some sectors, partlyover India’s continued Russian oil imports. Pakistan, meanwhile, securedfavourable tariff rates and a multibillion-dollar arms deal, including F-16upgrades worth hundreds of millions. These moves irked Indian officials,who viewed them as rewarding Pakistan despite longstanding concerns overcross-border terrorism.
Experts note that Trump’s transactional approach prioritises deals andpersonal credit. His administration’s national security strategyhighlighted brokering peace between India and Pakistan among other globalconflicts. This narrative, repeatedly emphasised in speeches andinterviews, bolstered Pakistan’s position while complicating India’sefforts to isolate Islamabad internationally on terrorism issues.
Relations between Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi cooledsignificantly. Early warmth from Trump’s first term gave way to publicdisagreements, with Modi reportedly declining invitations and rebuttingmediation claims directly. Indian opposition parties criticised thegovernment for the perceived downgrade in bilateral ties, once hailed as astrategic partnership against common threats.
Military analysts warn of evolving dynamics on the ground. Pakistan’s armedforces, emboldened by US engagements and claimed successes in the 2025clashes, have conducted exercises showcasing advanced capabilities. Reportssuggest enhanced operational planning, potentially introducing new levelsof engagement in future scenarios, differing from past limited skirmishesalong the Line of Control.
The US pivot coincides with Pakistan’s efforts to rebuild credibility incounterterrorism cooperation. Captures of high-value targets and pledges ofsupport in regional stability have resonated in Washington. Conversely,India’s independent stance on energy security and refusal to acknowledge USmediation have contributed to frictions.
As 2026 begins, diplomatic circles in Islamabad express cautious optimismabout sustained US support. Sources indicate that in hypothetical crises,Trump’s administration might prioritise de-escalation favouring Pakistan’snarrative to claim diplomatic victories. This could alter deterrencecalculations for both South Asian rivals.
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India has responded by diversifying partnerships, strengthening ties withEurope, Russia, and China on certain issues. Trade negotiations with the EUand others aim to offset US pressures. Yet, the core strategic alignmentwith Washington remains, albeit tested.
Regional stability hangs in balance amid these shifts. Observers urge quietdiplomacy to prevent miscalculations, emphasising that nuclear thresholdsdemand careful management irrespective of great-power alignments.
The evolving US posture reflects broader realignments, where pragmaticdeals overshadow traditional alliances. For Pakistan, it offers breathingspace; for India, a reminder of strategic autonomy’s importance.
Source:https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/india-will-not-accept-third-party-mediation-relations-with-pakistan-modi-tells-2025-06-18/
Tags: United States, Pakistan, India, Donald Trump, Narendra Modi, AsimMunir, Kashmir
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