The economic cost of the 16 years invisible war in Pakistan

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The economic cost of the 16 years invisible war in Pakistan

ISLAMABAD: The cost borne by Pakistan due to incidents of terrorism during last 16 years (2001-17) was around US $ 123.13 billion but amid efforts to eliminate this menace, the expenditure is showing a decline.

The direct and indirect total losses incurred due to incidents of terrorism are declining and during 2015-16 it declined by 29.8 per cent while during July-March 2016-17 it declined by 40.2 per cent.

This clearly reflects effectiveness of government’s efforts to eliminate terrorism and extremism from the country.

An official summary showing impact of war in Afghanistan and ensuing terrorism on Pakistan’s economy on Sunday revealed that of the total estimated losses US$ 123.13 billion, equivalent to Rs 10,373.93 billion, incurred due to terrorist attacks during last 16 years were included US $ 2.67 billion (Rs. 163.9 billion) in 2001-02, US $ 2.75 billion (Rs. 160 billion) in 2002-03, US $ 2.93 billion (Rs. 168.8 billion) in 2003-04, US $ 3.41 billion (Rs. 202.4 billion) in 2004-05 and during 2005-06 it was US $ 3.99 billion (Rs. 238.6 billion).

Similarly, during 2006-07, the losses incurred were US $ 4.67 billion (Rs. 283.2 billion), during 2007-08 US$ 6.94 billion (Rs.434.1 billion), during 2008-09 US $ 9.18 billion (Rs 720.6 billion), during 2009-10 US $ 13.56 billion (Rs. 1136.4 billion), during 2010-11 US $ 23.77 billion (Rs. 2037.33 billion), during 2011-12 US $ 11.98 billion (Rs 1052.77 billion), during 2012-13 US $ 9.97 billion (Rs. 964.24 billion), during 2013-14 US $ 7.7 billion (Rs. US 791.52 billion), during 2014-15 US $ 9.24 billion (Rs. 936.3 billion), during 2015-16 US $ 6.49 billion (Rs. 675.76 billion) and during first nine months of 2016-17, the losses incurred were US 3.88 billion (Rs. 407.21 billion).

During year 2015-16, such losses were US $ 6488.5 million and during fist nine months of this fiscal year 2016-17 were US $ 3884.86 million.

The details of losses in other domains during last two years included exports US $ 0.503 million, Compensation to Affectees US $ 21.88 million, Physical Infrastructure US $ 928.75 million, Foreign Investment US $ 1996.3 million, Privatization US $ 262.73 million, Industrial Output US $ 29.38 million, Tax Collection  US $ 5920 million, Cost of Uncertainty  US $ 14.82 million, Expenditure Overrun US $ 1197.11 million and others US $ 1.9 million.

Moreover, the summary further revealed that Pakistan has achieved progressive and significant improvement in overall security landscape in recent years despite conflict and continuing instability in Afghanistan.  This has been accomplished largely due to successful counter terrorism efforts of the government under framework of comprehensive National Action Plan (NAP), backed by an extensive and highly effective counter terrorism operation Zarb-e-Azb by armed forces, and actions by other security and law enforcement agencies and intelligence-based operations across the country.

After successful completion of operation ‘Zarb-e-Azb’, a country-wide operation Radd-ul-Fasaad has been launched for eliminating any residual or latent threats.

It said due to war in Afghanistan, Pakistan has faced the most serious consequences – from political to security, socio-economic and environmental – over the decades.

From hosting millions of refugees to being a major victim of terrorism, the cumulative impact has been enormous, with adverse overall growth rate in all major sectors of economy, the survey said.

Normal economic and trading activities were disrupted, resulting in higher costs of doing business including cost of insurance and significant delays in meeting export orders around globe.

As a result, Pakistani products gradually lost their market share to their competitors.

Pakistan continues to be a target of terrorism, including foreign-sponsored terrorism from its immediate neighbourhood. A substantial portion of precious national resources, both men and material, had to be diverted to address security challenges and to repair damaged infrastructure during last many years.

In addition to economic losses, cross border terrorism in Pakistan has inflicted untold human suffering resulting from indiscriminate and brutal terrorist attacks against civilian population.

In this backdrop, success in counter-terrorism has played a critical role in creating a conducive economic environment whose results have now started appearing in terms of growth across different segments of the economy.

As a result of these efforts, the total losses incurred due to incidents of terrorism are declining. APP